The World Cup Arrives: Let's Get To Work And Make Bad Predictions
World Cup kickoff week is thankfully here and while there seem to be a few...um...administrative issues around some rather important elements of holding the world's biggest sporting tournament in Mexico, the United States, and Canada, I'm almost certain games will be played and we'll finally be IN IT. Soccer is going consume our lives this summer and I couldn't be more excited to give myself over.
With the first games just two days away as I write this, it's about time to put on the record my thoughts about where this thing is headed for both my beloved USMNT and wide tournament. As much as I would love to tell you I think the Red, White, and Blue can lift the trophy at Met Life Stadium on July 19, my expectations for the Americans are slightly less lofty.
Before we get to some predictions sure to go wrong, a note about my summer and how I plan to use the newsletter as we proceed through 104 games before crowning a champion in New Jersey:
SiriusXM FC will be my primary coverage outlet throughout the World Cup.
We're going wall-to-wall at SXM to add to the World Cup experience. The Fox Sports channel will simulcast the audio from their coverage and SiriusXM FC will have shows before, during, and after games to add to the game broadcasts. We're doing live audio check-ins, which I think will make the shows feel connected directly to the tournament in a way I'm really excited about.
Eric Wynalda and I are partnered up for plenty of shows, but I'll also be working with some of the others personalities on the channel as my shift bounces around depending on the schedule of the day. Look for me and Luis Miguel Echegaray on Friday night in the aftermath of the USMNT opener against Paraguay.
"But Jason", you're probably thinking, "don't I have to pay for SiriusXM?"
Yes, there's a paywall and SiriusXM does cost a handful of dollars a month. But if you're just interested in the World Cup coverage, this is a perfect time to sign up for a 3-month free trial of the SiriuXM app. No excuses. Let's friggin go.
Morning Kickaround will run through the tournament, covering World Cup stories and more.
My three-times-a-week YouTube show, Morning Kickaround, will continue to run through the tournament and while we will certainly talk about the World Cup, we'll be on the lookout for stories from around American soccer down the pyramid as well.
MK is as much focused on the growth of the game at the high amateur and lower professional levels as it is on things like Major League Soccer and international football. If you're looking for respite from FIFA-tainted activities, Morning Kickaround is a great place to find one.
If you sign up as a member of the YouTube channel for a few bucks a month you get access to our Discord and the community we're building.
The Best Soccer Show will probably happen on a sporadic schedule.
My radio obligations mean I can't schedule The Best Soccer Show in its usual, consistent, Thursday night time slot, so I'll be doing what I can to record episodes when I have an open window.
While TBSS will always be a USMNT-focused thing, I want to use that show to explore some other things around the tournament, the national team, and the experience of the North American World Cup. Look for special guest appearances, interviews with people covering the World Cup, and the occasional monologue from me on things beyond the events on the field.
When live, The Best Soccer Show is video show streamed through YouTube and you can subscribe to get alerted ahead of a broadcast.
If you prefer to hear my voice and not see my face, the podcast version is available wherever you get podcasts.
The newsletter will feature daily dispatches on the events of the previous day
Look for daily quick hits on the previous days World Cup games and wide questions/narratives around the tournament here on Soccer Eagle. There will be some actual soccer analysis mixed in with stories about teams, players, and more as my brain chews up and spits out things that are happening all over the continent.
If you're reading this but aren't subscribed to Soccer Eagle, fix that right now and get those dispatches in your inbox throughout the tournament.
If you're reading this in your inbox or are already subscribed, do me the biggest possible favor and share the newsletter with someone. Soccer Eagle aims to be accessible, so even the soccer newbies in your life can get something out of joining the list.
Ok, it's about that time. Let's predict this thing.
World Cup Champion: Spain
I picked Spain to win the Euros back in 2024 and it helped me secure the Giorgio Mug (the prediction competition we do for the Premier League season and major tournaments) title on Sirius XM FC when the lifted the trophy in Germany.
I see no reason not to ride with Spain again.
La Furia Roja possess the perfect mix of young, world class talent (Pedri, Yamal, Cubarsí) and veteran, world class talent (Rodri, Fabián Ruiz, David Raya) and more than enough depth to navigate the gauntlet that will come with the knockout phase of the World Cup.
Yamal's injury means Spain won't be as dynamic in the group stage as we might have hoped, but he should be ready to go when they need him most.
Alternate Favorite With A Deep Run Coming: Portugal
If things go to plan, Portugal could face Argentina in a quarterfinal. While Portugal has more talent than Argentina, I'm not sure I'd be too comfortable picking the Iberian side against La Albiceleste.
But, as I said, Portugal is embarrassingly rich in pure soccer talent. Forgot the Ronaldo factor—no one trusts Robert Martinez when it comes to doing the right thing and benching Portugal greatest-ever player—and instead focus on the midfield that Martinez can't possibly screw up.
Vitinha is my favorite player in the world at the moment, the kind of midfielder who can do a little bit of everything and always seems to pop up in the right place at the right time. With PSG teammate João Neves next to him, there won't be a better two-man unit anywhere in the competition.
Mid-Major Ready For A Breakthrough: Ecuador.
Our SiriusXM FC Giorgio Mug competition for the World Cup we pick a team from six different tiers of the 48 World Cup teams, from favorites (France, England, Spain, Argentina) down to the "just happy to be here" crew of Cape Verde, Curaçao, et al.
Ecuador is in Pot 4, a level that could be viewed as an insult to the second-place team from Conmebol qualifying. La Tri isn't going to wow with the possession and intricate passing movement, but they will make in almost impossible to score and can murder you with a lightning quick counterattack.
That, in a nutshell, is a recipe for tournament soccer success. Watch out for Ecuador.
Okay Fine, A Prediction For The United States Men's National Team.
The World Cup is a still a thing that hasn't happened yet, which means that the my heart is still full of hope. Until the USMNT kicks off on Friday in Los Angeles against Paraguay to kick off the most important World Cup in its history (the most recent World Cup is always the most important World Cup for the USMNT), anything is possible.
A quarterfinal run? More than just possible.
A semifinal appearance? Why not dream?
The reality of the Americans' place in the hierarchy of this tournament is made more complicated to assess due to a few factors:
- Although the friendlies against Senegal and Germany gave us hints, I don't think we've seen yet what Mauricio Pochettino would call his ultimate plan for how this team will line up and how it will play.
- The home field will be a massive lift for a team that has very rarely enjoyed it at this level. It's a World Cup on home soil and while FIFA's ticket pricing scheme might keep atmospheres from reaching full potential, you can be certain the US players will feed off the energy available.
- The injury status of a few players, Chris Richards chief among them, means we don't know how much better the defending could be. Against Senegal and Germany the defensive let downs were disappointing because they were simple: A poor giveaway and a marking failure, a poor backpass, failure to mark on a set piece, and an open player on a cutback. If Richards plays, we presume those things will be better.
The bracket is quite frankly not kind to the US if/when they reach the knockout phase. If the US wins the group (which I'm predicting come via a goal-difference tie-breaker with Turkey) they'll get a third-place finisher in the Round of 32. That should be a winnable game, but things will be much easier if they can avoid the third-place team from a handful of groups (this dependents one which eight groups send third-place finishers to the knockout rounds).
Win a Round of 32 game and they'll get...probably Belgium, a team that just whacked the US in a friendly in March. The World Cup is much different scene than that warm-up game in Atlanta, but no one would have the Americans as favorites going into that game.
But again...hope. I'm buying the idea that Pochettino is putting it all together at the right moment and that a bit of luck is going to go the American way on American soil. The USMNT can beat Belgium (provided we don't get some major group surprises and it is Belgium) and reach the quarterfinals.
And since I picked Spain to win the whole enchilada, that would be the best case scenario as far I can imagine it. Spain should win their group and games in the Round of 32 and Round of 16, putting them on a direct collision course with the USMNT in the quarterfinals.
Considering it's been 24 years since the USMNT reached the last eight of the World Cup and it would take winning an extra knockout game to get there, the quarterfinals would be a respectable end to a home effort in 2026.
Of course, I'm dreaming of more. Why not a gritty, lucky, nonsensical surprise run to the last four. Forget my pick. Let's take down Spain. The last time Spain was the best national team in the world, the USMNT shocked them with a win at the Confederations Cup in South Africa.
The World Cup is finally here. Let's ride.
