USMNT Roster Logic

Finally, for sure this time, the window of experimentation and audition is over for the USMNT ahead of the most important World Cup in the history of the sport in the United States of America.

I think.

Certainly Mauricio Pochettino is out of chances to see players first hand in camp, which means that edge players still not firm for the World Cup squad must now go back to their club teams and try to solidify their resumes with strong finishes to the end of the European season or strong resumptions of the Major League Soccer season.

You might see some analysis from writers, podcasters, and YouTubers on who is or is not going to make the squad when Pochettino drops a final list of 26 for the tournament on May 26 ahead of the two warmup friendlies (sorry, Mauricio, "unofficial matches").

Jeff Carlisle did his Big Board at ESPN and described the roster situation as a "cloudier" than before this camp. Fox Sports' Doug McIntyre (who I talked to this week's ep of The Best Soccer Show) did a post-game roster prediction with a best shot at the group he thinks Pochettino will call. Paul Tenorio and Henry Bushnell teamed up for The Athletic's version of the obligatory list of names. I'll let you go find the podcast and YouTube versions on your own.

I'm not going to give you my predicted roster. Not because I don't have a guess, but because I more interested in how hard it is to get inside Pochettino's head (and because, let's be honest, you don't need another one). The logic Jeff and Doug and Paul and Henry and almost everyone else is using to predict a roster is mostly worthless in this scenario because nothing the USMNT head coach has done to this point seems to follow an identifiable line of thinking.

Gio Reyna's involvement in his camp is a perfect example. Gio himself described the decision as "controversial" in comments to the media last week because of his lack of playing time with Borussia Mönchengladbach. Why would Pochettino give a precious spot on the most important roster in American men's soccer history to a guy who's "form" couldn't be placed on the good/bad spectrum because there's barely any form to place?

But Gio is undeniably one of the most talent American players to ever kick a ball and so we worked (as observers of various stripes) to understand the thinking behind his inclusion. Maybe Pochettino viewed Reyna as a X-factor (because of his undeniable talent) that he desperately needed in a team with so few game changers. Maybe Reyna wasn't so much getting a chance to prove something in this camp as he was taking up his role for the group now and into the summer.

And then Gio played 33 minutes total over two games with not much to show for them, leading several of the writers mentioned above to leave him off their final roster projections. Alex Zendejas and Diego Luna, the former a healthy March window omission and the latter a player presumed to have missed out through injury, are said to have improved their stocks in absentia.

I get it. As I read their reasoning and look back at the words above, that logic makes sense. I just don't think it's applicable.

My gut says Reyna will make the World Cup roster. Forgive me that one prediction, but I'm using it to illustrate the point that with nothing to go on, my brain is leaning on the original idea about Gio which is itself a logic that likely doesn't apply.

I'm not saying Mauricio Pochettino doesn't have a system to guide his thinking on which players will make the World Cup team (beyond the obvious names, whom I feel safe will be there), I'm saying no one who isn't Mauricio Pochettino can begin to guess what it is. I expect roster surprises, perhaps Gio included. What metrics apply for one player (i.e. he needs to get regular club time and perform well in those opportunities) isn't going to apply for others.

Pochettino said that he and his staff will be closely watching club exploits on the way to naming the final roster. A few guys might work their way into the final plan, regardless of how they've ever played for the USMNT (I'm looking at you, Johnny Cardoso), despite a general opinion that they didn't do much to make their case during this window.

Besides, injuries are going to have the biggest impact on what the 26-man home World Cup roster looks look, not anything that happened in Atlanta. We've still got nearly two months and a lot can happen between now and then.

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There's a new episode of The Best Soccer Show out today if you like podcasts or watching podcasts (the whole video podcast thing is funny to me since TBSS has been one since the very beginning—2011). I grabbed Dougie Mac, aka Doug McIntyre of Fox Sports for a March window postmortem.

Doug was on hand in Atlanta and we talked about the team vibes after two losses in addition to covering all of the big roster questions and whether Pochettino is missing a trick by failing to build excitement through any winning in the last window before the roster is chosen.

If Spotify ain't your thing, here's an Apple Podcasts link.

If you want more from The Best Soccer Show, the podcast has a longstanding Patreon page with plenty of bonus content, access to a Slack community of amazing American soccer fans, and much more. We keep it fun.

Morning Kickaround is live three days a week covering an esoteric mix of American soccer stories. If you like hearing about American soccer grifters, the explosion of expansion teams at the second and third division levels, and even the boom in amateur leagues happening across the country, check out MK.

You can get MK as a podcast (just search) but the show is best consumed on the Morning Kickaround YouTube channel.

Ok, that's it, I'm done. Happy Easter to those who celebrate. Have a great weekend.